Put in $2000, then purchased:
$490.89 for BN
$500 for OWL
$300 for PSUS
$1000 for TSM
The focus on the market for the past few months, besides the various wars, was AI capex spent by hyperscalers like Alphabet, Meta, Amazon, Microsoft. It led to the tremendous returns earned in semi-conductors and memory companies. Besides NVDA and TSM, I didn't participate in the bull market because I was not very good at predicting the demand and supply dynamics of the somewhat commodities like chips and memories. Nvidia and TSMC were exceptions because they have unique technology which made them the best in their market.
SK Hynix and Samsung were the poster child of the AI capex stocks which earned tremendous returns. SK Hynix returned 700% and Samsung returned 350% for the past twelve months. I don't know how far they can keep growing, but in the short-term, investors/speculators put a lot of money to leverage up their bets in these superstar stocks, which was especially evident in the South Korea stock market. The fragility of these "weak hands" caused a short-term plunge in the stocks and the whole semiconductor industry for the past few days when there were slightly negative news in fundamentals (e.g. Kimi K3 model being able to perform as good as frontier models while using less high-end chips to be trained, Bank of Korea raised the interest rate by 25 basis points) or technicals (high maintenance requirements for margin accounts causing deleveraging).
I took advantage of this technical correction to put more money into TSM, which I believe is a steal at less than 20 2027 P/E given its high growth expected (20+%) for the upcoming years.
On the other hand, the recent shareholders/analysts call of Brookfield Corporation gave an interesting guidance on earnings. The management expects the distributable earnings can grow 25% for four more years, growing from $2.54 in 2026 to $6.95 in 2030. I still use a conservative estimate of 20 P/DE for buy below price, so it's trading at a small discount by that calculation, but the potential return is very high if the company can achieve what the management guided for. Hence, I put quite a bit of money into the stock this time.
PSUS is just a stable pick for me to follow Bill Ackman given it's trading at around 20% discount to NAV (delayed NAV = $47.81 on 07/14).
OWL is again, the most undervalued alternative asset managers, which I had been accumulating more almost at each portfolio update. The investment thesis is still intact.
Paypal (PYPL) just got a bid from Stripe and Advent for $60.5 a share. It's only a little bit over my cost basis of about $58 a share. Paypal is a company that has a good moat to maintain its user base and activities on Paypal, Venmo and Braintree, which allows it to earn nice stable free cash flow, but it needs a little bit of creativity to re-ignite its growth. The bidding price definitely was a low-ball offer, and I hope that it can get a bidding price closer to my buy below price of around $70 (about 15 P/E) and even more.
Transactions
Recent and upcoming dividend distributions
Portfolio performance snapshot
Total return:
One-year return:
Portfolio IRR (calculation): 16.79%
Approximated IRR for an SPY-only portfolio: 18.29%
Individual holdings:
Breakdown by categories (real-time):
Total returns for individual holdings:
Last prices:
Portfolio holdings conviction
The convictions in the table below reflects my current opinions and will guide the future contribution of additional investment to existing holdings. Stocks not inside the table are stocks with subpar return on equity that will be very unlikely to receive more contributions from new money (there can be exceptions for very cheap stocks). All of my writeups can be found here.
Conviction in long-term prospects means how much I believe a company would match or outperform the market (e.g. S&P 500) in the long run. Valuation matters so the conviction generally corresponds to the neutral rating of Valuation. It has the following ratings: weak, moderate, strong
Valuation: greatly overvalued, overvalued, slightly overvalued, neutral, slightly undervalued, undervalued, greatly undervalued
