Put in $2000, then purchased:
$500 for AMZN
$300 for APO
$400 for META
$500 for OWL
$300 for UNH
Similar to my previous updates (2026/02/06 2026/01/23), the stocks of the alternative asset managers were under stress due to negative market sentiments on private credits and AI disruptions in software (mainly enterprise software). After the tech earnings reported in the last two weeks, the market was also negative on big AI spending capex, which ironically contradicts with the AI disrupting software, i.e. if AI is really disrupting enterprise software, then it would only make sense in spending more capex serving the demand of AI, then why so negative about the capex?
Anyway, I am taking advantage of the contradicting and irrational Mr Market, and kept adding more into alternative asset managers. In this update, I also had the opportunity to add more Amazon and Meta as well, which is nice. The market was spooked by the high capex expectations from these big tech companies. The market forgot that Amazon has earned very good returns on its capex in the past, e.g. AWS, logistics for retail. Meta, while not very wise in spending on extra categories (e.g. Reality Labs), has been a big beneficiary from any improvements in targeting and recommendations provided by its internal AI capabilities. Regardless of whether the return on capital for its high capex is high or not, Meta will benefit from the spending. Having tons of option values is the one advantage of a company with plenty of free cash flow.
UNH is expected to earn $17.85 in 2026 (from SeekingAlpha), which means it's trading at a bit over 16 P/E. The stock can grow its EPS 10-15% annually (expected to reach over 20% in 2028-2031 before coming down to around 10%), so it's just cheap at this point considering the company has a pretty good economic moat. I was happy to be able to keep adding more into the stock at a cheap price recently.
Transactions
Recent and upcoming dividend distributions
Portfolio performance snapshot
Total return:
One-year return:
Portfolio IRR (calculation): 20.7%
Approximated IRR for an SPY-only portfolio: 17.21%
Individual holdings:
Breakdown by categories (real-time):
Total returns for individual holdings:
Last prices:
Portfolio holdings conviction
The convictions in the table below reflects my current opinions and will guide the future contribution of additional investment to existing holdings. Stocks not inside the table are stocks with subpar return on equity that will be very unlikely to receive more contributions from new money (there can be exceptions for very cheap stocks).
Conviction in long-term prospects means how much I believe a company would match or outperform the market (e.g. S&P 500) in the long run. Valuation matters so the conviction generally corresponds to the neutral rating of Valuation. It has the following ratings: weak, moderate, strong
Valuation: greatly overvalued, overvalued, slightly overvalued, neutral, slightly undervalued, undervalued, greatly undervalued
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