Put in $2000, then purchased:
$200 for APO
$200 for BN
$930.41 for OWL
$200 for PAX
$200 for BTC
$200 for TSLA
The portfolio reached a $200,000 net asset value milestone in this update, thanks mostly to the tech stocks and the alternative asset managers.
Alternative asset managers were doing very well until September 23rd. Then on September 24th, they started to come back down. For example, OWL closing price on 09/26 is about 5% lower than on 09/23. It's not a big dip, but it is below my buy-below price of $18 again, so I took advantage of this opportunity to buy more.
Transactions
Recent and upcoming dividend distributions
Portfolio performance snapshot
Total return:
One-year return:
Portfolio IRR (calculation): 26.25%
Approximated IRR for an SPY-only portfolio: 19.13%
Individual holdings:
Breakdown by categories (real-time):
Total returns for individual holdings:
Last prices:
Portfolio holdings conviction
The convictions in the table below reflects my current opinions and will guide the future contribution of additional investment to existing holdings. Stocks not inside the table are stocks with subpar return on equity that will be very unlikely to receive more contributions from new money (there can be exceptions for very cheap stocks).
Conviction in long-term prospects means how much I believe a company would match or outperform the market (e.g. S&P 500) in the long run. Valuation matters so the conviction generally corresponds to the neutral rating of Valuation. It has the following ratings: weak, moderate, strong
Valuation: greatly overvalued, overvalued, slightly overvalued, neutral, slightly undervalued, undervalued, greatly undervalued
Brief comments on individual holdings
Most Brief analysis and latest updates are here:
AHH, AMZN, BABA, BIDU, BN, BTC, HASI, HHH, HOOD, MAIN, NNN, NVDA, OWL, PAX, PYPL, TSLA, TSM, UNH, XYZ, ETFs like SPY, VWO
Below are incomplete writeups:
META
Global Monthly Active User (MAU) above 2.8 billion. Facebook is the biggest social network in the world. There will always be people buying Facebook/Whatsapp/Instagram.
The economic moat is weakened by Tiktok, but Tiktok is not really a social network that connects users who are familiar with each other, but another variant of youtube, so Facebook is still the top dog in social networking, although user time spent is definitely hurt.
Given Facebook's investment in VR; optional values in Facebook dating, and Facebook shops; Facebook Pay and Messenger have good monetization potential; Instagram has a unique position for people to express themselves; the improvement in Ads Infra to compensate for the loss in Apple App Tracking Transparency, I believe Facebook will come back. Long term annual growth of 15-20% in earnings should not be a problem.
BRK.B
Berkshire Hathaway in the current form was found by my idols, Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger. I will try to buy more if it's not very expensive.
APO
Apollo specialized in distress situations, which reduced the number of competitors. Its famous slogan is purchase price matters, which shows how price conscious they are in picking investment. It has another slogan "we want 25% of everything and 100% of nothing on the asset", which is a goal post of the company about engaging in a lot of asset managing transactions even for other asset managers. It's a good way to position the company to have a large adjustable market. Their use of reinsurance company, Athene, helps them to grow assets under management effortlessly as well.
[2025/04/04] Expected 2025 EPS is $8.3, so P/E around 13.25, pretty cheap with an expected growth of 10-15%. 1.68% dividend yield helps a bit as well.
BAM
The pure asset management company part of the Brookfield Corporation. With BN, BAM can grow its asset under management (AUM) easily. Oaktree Capital, founded by the famous Howard Marks, is part of it, so it's very reputable.
The management has already indicated they are locked in to grow its cash flow 15% annually for the next field years. Its management fees do not rely on performance that much, so they are stable. With an expected 2023 EPS of $1.39, P/E 25 is not cheap, but with the help of 3.8% dividend yield (close to 100% payout, thanks to the asset light business model), there is a fair chance the stock can return 15% annually.
BX
A very reputable company in real estate. Its management fees rely on performance much more than Brookfield, but Blackstone has a track record, so I am not too worried about it.
Expected 2023 EPS is $4.36, P/E ~ 21. A 3.5% dividend yield with expected annual growth of 10-15%, this stock can potentially get a 15+% return in the long run.
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